19 Jan 2021
Migration Policy Practice (Vol. X, Number 4, September–December 2020)
While migration predictions are an indispensable part of any attempt to proactively prepare for future opportunities and challenges, and to render migration more foreseeable, no single approach can capture all relevant aspects of a complex and multidimensional phenomenon such as migration.
Forecasting global migration was the topic of the 2020 Austrian European Migration Network (EMN) Conference, organized in partnership with the Austrian Ministry of the Interior and IOM’s Global Migration Data Analysis Centre (GMDAC), which gathered prominent academics, policymakers and practitioners who provided an overview of existing models, studies and forecasting tools, including their underlying assumptions and key results.
Some of the conference presentations are reproduced in this special MPP special issue, whose objective is threefold: first, to create awareness of the opportunities and limitations of migration forecasting by presenting key predictive approaches and their usage; second, to contribute to the dialogue on existing and emerging priorities and thus enable the identification of forecasting and policy needs; and lastly, to bridge the gap between scientific forecasting methodologies and policy requirements to facilitate proactive migration management and innovative solutions for policymaking.
- Introduction – Forecasting global migration by Julia Lendorfer
- The challenges and value of forecasting by Elizabeth Collett
- Forecasting migration: A policy guide to common approaches and models by Rhea Ravenna Sohst and Jasper Tjaden
- Black swans and grey rhinos: Migration policy under uncertainty by Jakub Bijak and Mathias Czaika
- Expert opinion on future immigration to the European Union by 2030: Relevant, realistic and reliable? by Eduardo Acostamadiedo, Jasper Tjaden, Rhea Ravenna Sohst and Susanne Melde
- Foresight: Using machine learning to forecast and understand forced displacement by Alexander Kjærum
- How economic development shapes migration: Facing the emigration life cycle by Michael A. Clemens and Cassandra Zimmer
- Forecasting asylum-related migration to the European Union, and bridging the gap between evidence and policy by Anthony Albertinelli, Petya Alexandrova, Constantinos Melachrinos and Teddy Wilkin
- Forecasting migration: The way forward for national and European policymaking by Tobias Molander and Manfred Kohler
- Migration monitoring and preparedness at the European Union level: The need for multi-stakeholder cooperation by Zsuzsanna Felkai Janssen