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28 Jun 2021

Assessing the Evidence: Climate Change and Migration in the United Republic of Tanzania

The publication Assessing the Evidence: Migration, Environment and Climate Change in the United Republic of Tanzania attempts to comprehensively address climate change impacts in the United Republic of Tanzania, current mobility patterns and trends, and the possible linkages between them. The majority of Tanzanians live in rural areas and depend on rain-fed smallholder farms and pasture that are expected to suffer significant impacts as a consequence of climate change. This report focuses mainly on the internal, rural-to-rural migration flows that are still prevalent in the country. It provides an analysis of the existing research on both climate change and migration in the country, drawing from evidence from the wider climate and migration literature. The main findings establish a first evidence base for future policymaking and investigation in the country.

This report is a joint effort between the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and IOM, supported by a number of external contributors.

Click here for the Executive Summary (Swahili).

  • Foreword by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • Foreword by IOM
  • Acknowledgements
  • Figures, text boxes and tables
  • Acronyms
  • Executive summary
  • Chapter 1. Introduction
    • About this report 
    • The concept of risk
  • Chapter 2. Country context and human development trends
    • Geographic makeup of the United Republic of Tanzania
    • Political and administrative makeup
    • Legal and policy frameworks
    • Migration and displacement policies
    • Land tenure and use
    • People of the United Republic of Tanzania
    • Population composition
    • Population growth
    • Fertility
    • Life expectancy
    • Population density and distribution
    • Household size and composition
    • Education
    • Economy, employment and wealth
    • Economic growth
    • Household wealth, poverty and inequality
  • Chapter 3. Analysis of risks related to climate change and exacerbating factors
    • Current climate and future projections
    • Temperature
    • Climate change in the United Republic of Tanzania: Temperature projections
    • Rainfall
    • Climate change in the United Republic of Tanzania: Rainfall projections
    • Water resources of the United Republic of Tanzania
    • Agriculture and food security
    • Farming, livestock and fisheries
    • Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture
  • Chapter 4. Human mobility in the United Republic of Tanzania: Current trends
    • About this chapter
    • Limitations
    • Internal migration
    • Magnitude of migration and destinations
    • Who moves?
    • International migration and refugee movements
    • International migration
    • Climate change and human mobility
  • Chapter 5. Conclusions and outlook
    • Outlook for the environment, climate change and human mobility trends
  • Recommendations: Support evidence-based policies
  • Recommendations: Improve research and data
  • Bibliography